McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

851
FXUS64 KFWD 091726
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms (30-50%) are expected again this
  afternoon and evening, primarily along and south of the I-20
  corridor.

- Thursday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of
  100-109 along and east of the I-35 corridor.

- Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances (20-40%) of
  thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

...Today and Tonight...

Upper-level water vapor imagery continues to show a positively
tilted trough with its axis extending from Western Texas into the
Great Lakes region. Weak synoptic scale lift ahead of this slowly
moving trough will be the primary forcing mechanism for widely
scattered (30-50% chance) thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon and evening. Most of the activity will be along and
south of the I-20 corridor, though a stray shower or storm (10-15%
chance) will still be possible closer to the Red River. Cloud
cover and storms this afternoon should keep temperatures near or
below average yet again, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in
Central and Southeast Texas to the mid-90s in the Big Country.

Though thunderstorms will diminish in coverage and intensity with
sunset, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance)
to linger to midnight, as weak forcing from the aforementioned
trough will continue to support convection even with the absence
of diurnal heating. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

...Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night...

Tomorrow, weak synoptic scale subsidence will work its way into
the region as the trough axis shifts further east towards the
Mississippi River Valley. As such, afternoon/evening storms will
be suppressed across most of the region with the exception of
east-central Texas where surface moisture will be high enough in
conjunction with weak remnant forcing for ascent to potentially
initiate isolated thunderstorms (15-30%). The bigger story
tomorrow will be the heat. With highs into the mid 90s and
afternoon dew points remaining in the low and mid 70s, it will be
one of the hotter days so far this year. The combination of hot
temperatures and high PBL humidity will result in peak heat
indices along and east of the I-35 corridor ranging from 100-109
degrees.

By tomorrow night, if any storms are able to develop, they should
quickly diminish with sunset, giving way to a clear night and lows
in the 70s.

Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday through Tuesday/

...Friday...

High pressure is expected to dominate across the region the last
day of this work week. This will keep skies clear, and allow
temperatures to climb into the low to mid-90s. More abundant
sunshine will allow for deeper mixing of the PBL. This will help
decrease surface humidity in the afternoon with dew points
dropping into the upper-60s and lower-70s. As such, peak heat
indices will reduce slightly compared to Thursday, maxing out in
the 95-104 range.

...Saturday through Tuesday...

Weak troughing is expected to return to the Southern Great Plains
by this weekend. This will bring, yet again, the potential for
isolated to widely scattered (20-40% chance) showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. Probabilities are higher Saturday
and Sunday as there is more confidence in the position of the
upper-level trough. Solutions diverge heading into the beginning
of next work week, with uncertainty regarding the persistence of
weak forcing for ascent that would favor diurnally driven
convection. Regardless, there will still be a low-end chance for
isolated storms during peak heating for Monday and Tuesday,
somewhere in the 10-20% range at this time.

Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Recent trends have pushed the bulk of afternoon convection
potential to the south of I-20. Though an isolated thunderstorm or
two cannot be ruled out between 20Z Wed and 01Z Thu in D10,
potential is too low to include in TAFs (20-30%). Will keep VCTS
at KACT, owing to the increasingly mature cumulus field, and a
consistent signal in short term guidance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms (30-50% chance) this afternoon through 00Z.
Depending on how storms evolve this afternoon, may need to amened
and include a TEMPO -TSRA for KACT later this afternoon/this
evening.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  76  95  77  94 /  20  10  10   0   0
Waco                89  73  91  73  90 /  40   5  10   0   5
Paris               90  73  94  75  94 /  20   5  20   0   0
Denton              94  73  96  75  94 /  10   5   5   0   0
McKinney            92  75  95  76  94 /  20   5  10   0   0
Dallas              93  76  96  77  95 /  30  10  10   0   0
Terrell             91  73  94  74  94 /  30   5  20   0   0
Corsicana           92  75  94  75  94 /  40   5  20   0   5
Temple              89  73  92  72  91 /  50  10   5   0   5
Mineral Wells       94  73  95  74  94 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$