McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS64 KFWD 272336
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
636 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot weather will continue into the upcoming work week,
  with triple-digit highs possible Tuesday through Thursday.

- Sparse showers and storms are possible (10-20% chance) along
  and east of I-35 this afternoon, before rain-free weather
  resumes heading into the week.

- A weak cold front may bring isolated to scattered showers and
  storms (20-40%) each afternoon beginning Friday, and offer a
  slight reprieve from summer heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/
/Through Tuesday Night/

...Today and Tonight...

Though longwave ridging continues to dominate upper-level flow
across much of the central and eastern CONUS, a weak inverted
trough currently positioned just west of the lower Mississippi
River Valley will bring one more day of mostly cloudy skies and
low precipitation chances (10-20%). While weak forcing and ample
moisture will generally support convection, a persistent deck of
upper-level clouds across portions of North-Central and Northeast
Texas will likely keep temperatures this afternoon in the mid-90s,
generally just shy of convective temperatures which will be in
the upper 90s for most. Nonetheless, sparse showers, and perhaps a
weak thunderstorm or two are anticipated, primarily in East
Texas, but potentially as far west as the I-35 corridor before
sundown this evening.


...Monday and Tuesday...

As ridging and subsidence strengthen their grip on the region,
highs will climb into the upper-90s/lower-100s. This is in part
due to high PBL moisture content shifting further to the east.
Though the drier air will help us cool off into the 70s (upper 60s
across Central Texas and into the Hill Country) overnight, it
will still be sufficiently humid with high enough afternoon temps
to begin a stretch of heat indices ranging from 105 to 109
degrees. As such, heat headlines will be needed for Monday and
Tuesday, particularly for the urban areas of the DFW metroplex
where overnight lows will still struggle to cool into the upper
70s.


Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/
/Wednesday through Saturday/

...Wednesday and Thursday...

A strong ridge will continue to be in place, potentially bringing
the hottest temperatures of the year so far during this time
frame. Afternoon high temperatures look to be near or just above
100 degrees for most, with the exception of locations in Central
Texas near the Hill Country where highs will remain in the mid
90s. Though surface moisture will still be relatively low, dew
points will be on the rise, increasing into the upper 60s and low
70s (especially across East Texas) towards the end of the week.
This will bring continued max heat indices of 100-109 degrees
towards the work week`s end.

...Friday and Saturday...

Heading into this next weekend, a strong high pressure originating
from Canada will make an impressive surge southward across much
of the central and eastern CONUS. Unfortunately for us, the vast
majority of this cool air will remain north and east of the
region. Nonetheless, we will still see some impacts from this
system. The cold front on the leading edge of the high will
approach and stall across, or just northeast of the area, bringing
the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms (20-40%)
each afternoon beginning on Friday. The increase in cloud cover
and lower heights advected into the southern Great Plains will
also help moderate the heat we`ll experience earlier in the week,
with highs looking to drop into the 90s: near or slightly below
average. The exact timing of this front, convective coverage, and
amount of clouds all remain uncertain as of now, which all have
implications on the exact temperatures to be expected heading into
this upcoming weekend. So stay tuned to the forecast as those
details become more clear in the coming days!


Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VCSH will impact KACT at the beginning of the TAF period through
01Z. Otherwise, dry, VFR conditions are expected at all airports
into tomorrow with south winds up to 12 kts.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  98  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                76  95  76  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  96  74  98  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              77 100  76 101  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            77  98  76 100  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  99  79 101  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  98  75 100  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           77  98  77 100  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  95  74  97  70 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       75 100  73 102  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
TXZ091>095-103>107-118>123-134-135-146-148.

&&

$$