McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

302
FXUS64 KFWD 280511
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1211 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend into
  next week with highs well into the 90s. Afternoon heat indices
  will rise into the lower 100s in many areas each afternoon.

- There is a chance of storms, mainly across North Texas, Monday
  through Wednesday of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Sunday/

Seasonably hot and humid weather will dominate North Central Texas
today through Sunday. A very ill-defined surface boundary
stretches along the Red River currently, and it`s not totally out
of the question that a stray shower or isolated thunderstorm could
initiate somewhere within the northern row of North Texas
counties through daybreak. Chances are sufficiently low, however,
to preclude mention in the early morning forecast period. A few
showers and thunderstorms may also form south of a Palestine to
Salado line Sunday afternoon, in response to the inland
penetration of seabreeze convergence from Southeast Texas.

Otherwise, mostly sunny skies will prevail today and Sunday, as a
weak ridge of upper level high pressure remains sprawled across
the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Subsidence will
be a bit more pronounced today relative to yesterday, and this
should yield a small increase in daytime temperatures through the
weekend. A secondary contributing factor to our slight warmup may
also be the slow day to day drying of soil and vegetation across
North Central Texas. Heat indices will top out in the 100-104
range at many locations this weekend, approaching the threshold
for heat advisories. Folks engaged in outdoor activities this
weekend should exercise caution to avoid heat related impacts.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/
/Saturday Night Onward/

High pressure will become re-established across the Southern
Plains as we head through the weekend, stunting rain chances
across the majority of North and Central Texas. Low chances for
sea breeze showers and storms will remain confined to southern
Central Texas, but most, if not all of the region will remain
rain-free. Low rain chances will return this upcoming week as an
upper level shortwave digs south and sends a cold front across the
Red River. This front is expected to stall in North Texas,
becoming a zone of increased convective development over the
first half of the new work week. Severe weather is not anticipated
with this activity due to the lack of meaningful deep layer
shear, though gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning will
all impact outdoor activities each day through Wednesday. Heading
towards July 4th, a de-amplifying upper low will move onshore the
western CONUS, shifting a building ridge overtop the region. This
will effectively stunt rain chances once again through the end of
the week. Aside from the rain chances, it will remain hot and
humid, with high temperatures mainly in the 90s and heat index
values up to around 103 each afternoon.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR conditions should prevail at all DFW-area TAF sites through
Sunday morning, as a broad ridge of upper level high pressure
persists across the Southern Plains states. A very diffuse surface
boundary near the Red River early this morning may be the focus
for isolated convection north of D10 prior to 14z, but the
probability of occurrence is low. Elsewhere, patches of stratus
will likely develop across Central Texas during the pre-dawn
hours, and a brief period of MVFR ceilings may occur at Waco
between 11z and 15z.

Southerly low level flow will persist at all TAF sites through 12z
Sunday. Speeds will average 08-13 knots from 15z to 00z today.

Bradshaw

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  95  77  96  78 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  94  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Paris               74  92  74  92  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
Denton              75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
McKinney            77  94  76  95  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              77  96  78  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  93  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  94  76  94  76 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              73  95  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       74  96  75  97  76 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$